While the Manchester derby rivalry usually stays confined to the pitch, Pep Guardiola has reportedly turned up the heat with a startlingly blunt assessment of Manchester United’s Champions League hopes. As the 2025/26 season enters its final stretch, the Manchester City boss has allegedly identified five “trap” fixtures that he believes will derail United’s top-four ambitions.
The Mind Games Begin: Pep’s Warning to Old Trafford
Despite Manchester United currently sitting in 4th place (48 points) after a resurgent run under Michael Carrick, Guardiola remains skeptical about their staying power. In a private moment that has since surfaced via club insiders, Pep reportedly suggested that United’s “thin squad and emotional volatility” won’t survive the relentless pressure of a three-way fight with Aston Villa and Chelsea.
> “I don’t see them qualifying,” Guardiola reportedly noted. “There are five games where the pressure will be too much. They cannot withstand the top-four intensity at this moment; the history is there, but the consistency is not.”
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The ‘Fatal Five’: Where United Will Drop Points
According to the reports, Guardiola has circled five specific matches in United’s remaining calendar where he expects them to stumble:
1. Newcastle United (Away) – March 4
St. James’ Park has become a graveyard for top-four hopefuls this season. Pep believes the Magpies’ high-intensity press will exploit United’s defensive inconsistencies, especially if they are coming off a heavy February schedule.
2. Chelsea (Away) – April 18
With Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea breathing down United’s neck in 5th place, this “six-pointer” at Stamford Bridge is seen by Pep as the ultimate psychological test—one he believes the Red Devils will fail.
3. Liverpool (Home) – May 2
Even at Old Trafford, the North-West Derby is never a guarantee. Guardiola reportedly views Liverpool’s attacking transition as the perfect counter to United’s current tactical setup under Carrick.
4. Aston Villa (Home) – March 15
Unai Emery’s Villa are currently United’s primary rivals for the 3rd and 4th spots. Pep noted that Villa’s tactical discipline often frustrates United’s “chaos-based” attacking style.
5. Brighton & Hove Albion (Away) – May 24
The final day of the season. Guardiola predicts that the pressure of needing a result at the Amex—a notoriously difficult ground—will be the final nail in the coffin for United’s European dreams.
The State of Play: Can United Prove Him Wrong?
United’s recent form says otherwise. They recently stunned City with a 2-0 victory at Old Trafford, thanks to goals from Bryan Mbeumo and Patrick Dorgu. However, Guardiola’s critique focuses on the points gap rather than individual brilliance. With only a three-point lead over Chelsea, any slip-up in these “Fatal Five” fixtures could see them relegated to the Europa League for another season.
| Team | Played | Points | Form |
|—|—|—|—|
| Arsenal | 28 | 61 | W-W-D-D-W |
| Man City | 27 | 56 | W-D-W-W-W |
| Aston Villa | 27 | 51 | W-L-D-W-D |
| Man Utd | 27 | 48 | W-W-W-D-W |
| Chelsea | 27 | 45 | W-W-W-D-D |
The Verdict
Whether this is a genuine tactical analysis or a classic bit of “Pep Talk” designed to rattle his neighbors, the challenge has been laid down. United’s season now hinges on proving that they can, in fact, handle the pressure.
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